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the financial aspects of the subject, and the danger of smuggling of opium into
the country.
FINANCIAL ASPECTS.
42. Before going into the financial aspects of the question, as affected by the proposed eventual registration of all smokers, it may be of interest to review the monetary results of the monopoly up to the present. The mistake is often made of assuming an increase or decrease in opium consumption by a mere consideration of the monetary results attained. In no oase, however, should any conclusions on the point be drawn, in the absence of information as to the amount of opium sold or consumed.
42. Annexe VIII shows year by year the total revenue of the State from all sources, the revenue derived from opium, the quantity of opium sold, and the price charged to the consumer, per tamlung. It will be seen from
this that the quantity sold has not varied very greatly since the Government took over the "Farm", running between approximately 2,000 000 and 1,800,000- tamlungs annually. The revenue accruing to the Government has, however, increased steadily, owing, in nearly all cases, to the gradually enhanced sale price of the drug. The immediate effect of an increased price is as the Table shows, generally a slight drop in the quantity sold during that year, but the amount usually rises in subsequent years to the normal consumption. In nearly all cases the economic condition of the country, as affected by the state of the rice crop and the consequent trade position, is reflected in the sales of the year.
44. A study of the Table will show that commercing from B. E. 2453 (1910-11) the sale price has been gradually raised until, by B. E. 2460 (1917-18). it was nearly double the figure of B. E. 2452 (1909-10); the profits were also proportionately increase 1, but the quantity sold remained practically unchanged. It is clear, therefore, that, despite the great advance in the revenue from the opium monopoly during the last 10 or 11 years, there has been no increase in the consumption of the drug, but rather thas the earning power of the people has increased and that to their improved circumstances may be attributed the much enhanced profits accruing to the Government.
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45. There are however, dangers attending a too great increase in price.
one of which is to induce the poorer class of smokers to eat dross, which is more harmful than smoking, while again it may drive them to theft to obtain money to satisfy their cravings. In the latter case these petty criminals become a burden on the rest of the community. The present price of Tes. 15 per tamlung is about the maximum which can be charged at present since the smallest size of tube ( 1/60 of a tamlung) retails for 25 satangs which represents 25% to 80% of an average labouring man's daily earnings. This price has been current since B. E. 2460 (1917-18): the increase of profit shown in B. E. 2461 (1918-19) was due to the elimination of the sub-Farmer, mentioned in para. 20.
46. In the year B. E. 2462 (1919-20) there was a further increase of revenue due to the raising of the license fees on retail shops, as it was realised that the large profit which the retailers made on the dross left in the pipes was out of proportion to the capital invested by them in the business.
47. The total opium revenue at present obtained by the Government is over 20 millions ticals per annum, and as this forms a large percentage of the aggregate revenue of the country, it is important to consider how the registration of smokers will affect it.
48. From the gradually increasing control now exercised over retailers and the general knowledge of the opium trade thereby rendered possible, it is known that a large part of the present sales is made to persons not really addicted to the drug, and it is believed that these will neither enter opium shops to smoke, nor apply for registration as home smokers. As soon as registration is put into force, the sale of opium to this class will probably stop, causing an immediate drop to the extent of 25% to 30% of the total sales. This will mean a reduction of 25% of the revenue from opium, representing a sum of at least 5 million ticals.
49. The Government does not regard with any apprehension the gradual reduction of revenue due to the death, &c, of registered smokers, looking as it does, to increase from other sources of revenue to replace that lost under opium. But a sudden drop of 5 million ticals in one year is quite another matter and it would be a continued one which could only be met by extra taxation. The country has, however, suffered a severe set back financially
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